Deflation Probabilities June 7, 2012

The level still is far from where were before operation Twist but it´s important to see that the probability after being flat for several months is starting to level up.

Longer-term deflation probabilities inch up June 7, 2012

Prices of TIPS with similar maturity dates can be used to measure probabilities of a net decline in the consumer price index over the five-year period starting in early 2011 or the five-year period starting in early 2012. One measure of the probability of deflation for the 2012–17 period was 16 percent on June 6, up from 14 percent a week earlier. The deflation probability for the 2011–16 period ticked up from 11 percent on May 30 to 12 percent on June 6.