Showing posts with label PBOC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PBOC. Show all posts

June 14, 2012

...But Chinese consumers are different. For one thing, they are poorer

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Since the global crisis hit China´s  growth, i have been thinking about the response of consumers patterns that, at least to me, looks odd. Now i see that there isn´t any good reason for expect the behavior of Chinese consumption patterns are equal or even similar to all we know. Consider the fact that they almost don´t use credit cards and saves 30% of their wages. That means that the impact of cutting rates by the Central Bank has much lesser impact that we thought. 

Chasing China's Shoppers Link
Median household income in Chinese cities was about $13,400 in 2010, according to Moody's Analytics, about a quarter the U.S. figure.
...
But Chinese consumers are different. For one thing, they are poorer. Median household income in Chinese cities was about $13,400 in 2010, according to Moody's Analytics, about a quarter the U.S. figure
...
The Chinese middle class also is at a different stage of development. Many Chinese want appliances and basic TV sets to fill their first apartments. Chinese on average also save more than 30% of household income, vastly more than Americans, and rarely use credit cards. And many Chinese shoppers expect to haggle over prices—a foreign concept for the U.S. company.
Last year, Best Buy shut its China outlets, figuring that opening U.S.-style stores had been a mistake, and focused exclusively on building the Five Star brand.
Five Star targets China's lesser-known cities, where some people are just beginning to develop consumer habits. About 70% of its customers are young families earning around 5,000 yuan, or roughly $800, a month and looking for products that a decade ago only the rich could afford.
The moment a customer starts browsing a big-ticket item, a Five Star sales clerk will offer the shopper cherry tomatoes, a cup of hot water to sip or some time in a massage chair. Later, the clerk will try to persuade the customer to buy the chair.
The chain also offers the services of "solution experts," who help customers sort through the conflicting claims of manufacturers' representatives who work in the stores, where goods are organized by manufacturer, rather than by product.
Five Star's experts give out their telephone numbers so customers can call at any time. The goal is to build a web of loyal shoppers through referrals, borrowing from a Chinese custom of relying on a network of trusted acquaintances for advice.
One Five Star shopping expert, Wang Bo, says he has been invited to a half-dozen customer weddings. "I earn their trust and give them the smile and service of an angel," he says.
Growing sophistication among some Chinese middle-class customers has led Five Star to upgrade in some cities. The Qingdao store has higher-priced electronics than older outlets—for example, cameras and high-definition video equipment for a first voyage overseas or a road trip across China.
Tan Peng and her fiancé, Hou Huimao, have a combined monthly income of 4,000 yuan. On a recent visit to Five Star's Qingdao outlet, they purchased a washing machine, a refrigerator and a flat-screen TV for their new two-bedroom apartment.
On their way out, the 28-year-olds stop to pore over an iPad but decide the time isn't right.
"We have to go to where we can get the best bargains," Ms. Tan says. "After all, we're not in the upper class."
Tan Peng and her fiancé, Hou Huimao, have a combined monthly income of 4,000 yuan. On a recent visit to Five Star's Qingdao outlet, they purchased a washing machine, a refrigerator and a flat-screen TV for their new two-bedroom apartment.
On their way out, the 28-year-olds stop to pore over an iPad but decide the time isn't right.
"We have to go to where we can get the best bargains," Ms. Tan says. "After all, we're not in the upper class."
On their way out, the 28-year-olds stop to pore over an iPad but decide the time isn't right.
"We have to go to where we can get the best bargains," Ms. Tan says. "After all, we're not in the upper class."
....
Following its parent's lead, Five Star opened a small research department last year to conduct consumer surveys. When it learned that some customers considered the chain stodgy, Five Star developed a new icon: cartoon characters that appear to be drawn by Hollywood animators.

June 8, 2012

PBoC toma medidas para tratar de recuperar su economía.

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China ayer redujo la tasa de préstamos y depósitos para combatir la caida en el crecimiento en ese país. Pero más importante que eso fueron las medidas que tomó para darles flexibilidad a los bancos de ajustar esas mismas tasas donde ahora podrán dar préstamos con un 20% de descuento sobre el benchmark ayer reducido a 6.31%

A mi juicio este movimiento ya había tardado y el Banco Central Chino (PBoC) ha dejado correr demasiado la desaceleración sin haber tomado medida alguna salvo reducir la tasa de reservas de los bancos.

China bajó el precio de la gasolina y diesel para estimular de igual manera su economía aprovechando que los costos a nivel mundial han caído.

Me parece que China la veremos llevando medidas cada vez más inusuales para tratar de recuperar la dirección de crecimiento pero lo que me preocupa es que a pesar de que el Banco Central ha abaratado el dinero y de alguna manera dado facilidades para que la población adquiera créditos y se incremente la inversión, la demanda por dinero no ha incrementado. Esto me parece a que la percepción de la población debe ser que la crisis a nivel mundial impacará de manera más importante e China y por lo tanto no hay confianza para invertir.





May 12, 2012

Que no se escape el tigre!!

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Como resultado de los últimos datos económicos Chinos que muestran una economía en desaceleración en lugar de una en recuperación, el Banco Central de China decidió recortar las reservas que los bancos mantienen depositadas como reservas.

Esto para incrementar la liquidez y como consecuencia el crédito en la economía. Algo que me preocupa es que el crédito sí ha aumentado, así mismo la liquidez pero esto no ha sido efectivo en los últimos seis meses. Ahora esta semana se revela la inflación y dado que no se ha tenido más brincos en el precio del petróleo o algún otro choque que nos haga pensar que los insumos están subiendo de precio, me hace pensar que la población en general es la que no está dispuesta a consumir o gastar más. Espero me equivoque en esta ocasión y empiece a repuntar pronto.

Creo que el Banco Central Chino ha dejado correr demasiado esta desaceleración y debe ser más activo en sus medidas para incentivar la economía de lo contrario se le escapará el tigre de la jaula y se le complicará regresarlo a donde estaba antes.